Canada’s Commitment
Canada committed to a 40% to 45% reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 level by 2030. https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan.html
In 2005, Canada emitted 731 megatonnes (Mt) of GHG emissions and by 2030 a 40% reduction will mean our emissions should be 438 Mt. A 45% reduction would result in 402 Mt. https://www.ec.gc.ca/doc/publications/cc/COM1374/ec-com1374-en-es.htm However, our emissions in 2023 were 696 Mt. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html
Canada is now projecting 2026 emissions will be 652 Mt or 14% below 2005 levels. 2030 emissions are projected to be 597 Mt or 22% below 2005 levels. However, Canada has removed the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) from the total GHG emissions. Land use is primarily agriculture, land use change is development on farmland and forestry includes forest fires, and the impact of clear cutting. In 2023, LULUCF emissions were 1,100 Mt and this amount has been excluded from out inventory even though it was included in the original commitment. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/land-based-greenhouse-gas-emissions-removals.html
Even without the LULUCF emissions, it is highly unlikely that Canada will meet it’s 2030 target.